Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands     

Song  Shuai  Qian  Yongjiu  Liu  Jing  Xie  Xiaorui  Wu  Gang 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2019,18(2):363-377

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.  相似文献   

整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用     

闫丽莉  温少妍  高文晶  刘传军  杨甜 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(2):446-455

长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离，建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据，在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补，并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:①插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合，插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律；②插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%，在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%，其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%，平均绝对误差为0.84℃，插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上；③从3月27日起出现增温异常，特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。  相似文献   

低周反复荷载下Q460钢材框架柱抗震性能分析     

刘宽  马煜东  黄娇  刘笑笑  苏佶智 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(3):535-554

为了进一步完善Q460钢材在抗震设计规范中相关限值的要求，本文利用有限元软件ABAQUS，以轴压比、翼缘宽厚比、腹板高厚比和壁板宽厚比为变量，建立了共48根“工”字型框架柱和“箱”型框架柱，分析了其抗震性能。结果表明:翼缘宽厚比对框架柱的能量耗散系数影响较小；能量耗散系数随轴压比、腹板高厚比（“工”字型）和壁板宽厚比（“箱”型）增大而明显减小；框架柱的极限承载力随轴压比的减小及壁板宽厚比和翼缘宽厚比的增大而逐渐增大，当腹板高厚比接近规范限值时，承载力下降趋势明显增大。与采用Q235钢材的框架柱相比，Q460钢材框架柱的延性较小，仅为2左右；当采用Q460钢材时，“工”字型框架柱的极限位移角限值建议取为0.03，“箱”型框架柱的极限位移角限值建议取为0.032。规范中对翼缘宽厚比限值的规定偏于保守，其值最大可取至9。无论是“工”字型框架柱还是“箱”型框架柱，其腹板高厚比均不宜过大。Q460钢材框架柱的刚度退化率随轴压比的增大而增强，且翼缘宽厚比越大，腹板高厚比越小，柱的初始刚度越大，刚度退化程度越明显。  相似文献   

室内管道系统抗震研究综述   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘志斌  郭恩栋  李倩  李玉芹 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(3):591-599

根据最新震害统计资料发现，非结构构件在地震中造成的经济损失远大于结构构件。非结构构件按照地震反应特征可分为位移敏感型构件和加速度敏感型构件。其中，位移敏感型构件的破坏多受层间位移角控制，主要采用拟静力试验进行研究；加速度敏感型构件的破坏多受楼面加速度的控制，主要采用振动台试验进行研究。室内管道系统是非结构构件的重要组成部分，室内管道系统中的立管和水平管分别属于位移敏感型和加速度敏感型构件。本文系统地论述了近年来国内外学者开展的关于室内管道系统的抗震研究工作，并对室内管道系统下一步的研究工作提出了建议。  相似文献   

Rising grain prices in response to phased climatic change during 1736–1850 in the North China Plain     

Wen  Yanjun  Fang  Xiuqi  Liu  Yang  Li  Yikai 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,62(11):1832-1844

Grain price volatility during historical periods is regarded as an important indicator of the impact of climate change on economic system, as well as a key link to adjust food security and social stability. The present study used the wheat prices in Baoding Prefecture, China, during 1736–1850 to explore connections between climatic transition and grain price anomalies in the North China Plain. The main findings were as follows:(1) The grain price change showed an apparent correspondence with climatic transition. The period 1781–1820 was a transition phase, with more extremes and decreased precipitations when the climate shifted from a warm phase to a cold one. Corresponding with the climatic transition, the grain price during 1781–1820 was characterized by that the mean of the original grain price series was significantly higher(lower) than the previous(later)phase, and the variance and anomaly amplitude of the detrended grain price series was the highest during 1736–1850.(2) The correspondence between grain price extremes and drought events occurred in phases. Five grain price extremes occurred following drought events during 1781–1810, while extreme droughts were the direct cause of the grain price spike during 1811–1820.(3) Social stability affected by climate change also played an important role in the grain price spike between 1811 and 1820. Paralleling the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price", climate change could have an impact on grain price via the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price-famine-uprising-grain price", as shown during the Tianli Uprising in 1813. These findings could contribute to an improved understanding of the interaction between climate change and human society during the historical period.  相似文献   

How changes of groundwater level affect the desert riparian forest ecosystem in the Ejina Oasis,Northwest China     

HaiYang Xi  JingTian Zhang  Qi Feng  Lu Zhang  JianHua Si  TengFei Yu 《寒旱区科学》2019,11(1):62-80

Groundwater is a key factor controlling the growth of vegetation in desert riparian systems. It is important to recognise how groundwater changes affect the riparian forest ecosystem. This information will not only help us to understand the ecological and hydrological process of the riparian forest but also provide support for ecological recovery of riparian forests and water-resources management of arid inland river basins. This study aims to estimate the suitability of the Water Vegetation Energy and Solute Modelling(WAVES) model to simulate the Ejina Desert riparian forest ecosystem changes,China, to assess effects of groundwater-depth change on the canopy leaf area index(LAI) and water budgets, and to ascertain the suitable groundwater depth for preserving the stability and structure of desert riparian forest. Results demonstrated that the WAVES model can simulate changes to ecological and hydrological processes. The annual mean water consumption of a Tamarix chinensis riparian forest was less than that of a Populus euphratica riparian forest, and the canopy LAI of the desert riparian forest should increase as groundwater depth decreases. Groundwater changes could significantly influence water budgets for T. chinensis and P. euphratica riparian forests and show the positive and negative effects on vegetation growth and water budgets of riparian forests. Maintaining the annual mean groundwater depth at around 1.7-2.7 m is critical for healthy riparian forest growth. This study highlights the importance of considering groundwater-change impacts on desert riparian vegetation and water-balance applications in ecological restoration and efficient water-resource management in the Heihe River Basin.  相似文献   

毛乌素沙区1961-2016年降水特征     

张雪琴  刘树林  冯坤  郭紫晨  康文平  陈翔  支莹 《中国沙漠》2019,39(6):141-150

基于毛乌素沙区10个气象站1961-2016年观测资料，应用Mann-Kendall方法和t检验法对各气象站年降水量进行了突变检验，借助小波分析讨论了各气象站年降水量的周期特征，根据降水量等值线划分结果对整个研究区分区分析了年、季、月和日尺度上的降水变化特征，并在两个时段上分析了季节性降水的差异。结果表明：毛乌素沙区年降水量空间特征差异明显，东部亚区呈上升趋势，中西部亚区呈下降趋势，但变化趋势不显著且无突变发生；降水年内分配不均，干湿季分明，降水集中在5-9月，夏秋季降水占全年降水比重大，季、月和日尺度降水量存在梯度递减变化；年降水量的年际变化过程存在多重时间尺度的自相似结构；近26年的冬春季降水增加显著，但降水波动幅度小于前30年。  相似文献   

Elastic anisotropy and its influencing factors in organic-rich marine shale of southern China     

Liu  Zichun  Zhang  Feng  Li  Xiangyang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,62(11):1805-1818

Shale is observed to have strong anisotropy due to its unique mineralogy and microstructure, and this anisotropy property has significant impact on seismic and well-log data. The organic-rich marine shale in the southern and eastern Sichuan Basin is one of the most important shale-gas reservoir formations in China. To investigate the elastic anisotropy of this shale and its influencing factors, we performed ultrasonic velocity measurements, X-ray diffraction analysis, rock-eval pyrolysis and vitrinite reflectance measurement on the samples from the Upper Ordovician Wufeng Formation and the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation. The experimental results show the that:(1) the velocity anisotropy of the Wufeng-Longmaxi(WL) shale varies from 10% to 50%, and most samples have strong anisotropy;(2) the P-and S-wave anisotropy parameters(Thomsen's εand γ) increase with clay contents, but this relationship can be greatly affected by the clay orientation index;(3) organic matter content(OMC) is found to have little influence in seismic anisotropy for the over mature WL shale, whereas the OMC determines the magnitude of anisotropy of immature/mature shales(e.g. the Bakken shale or the Bazhenov shale) according to the published literatures, because organic matters in shales of different maturity have different morphologies and distributions;(4) the OMC of WL shale has positive correlation with quartz content, and this weakens the correlation between OMC and the magnitude of anisotropy to a certain extent. The results of this study provide an important rock-physics basis and data support for seismic anisotropy exploration, quantitative interpretation and resource evaluation of the organic-rich marine shales in southern China.  相似文献   

Modelling the flexural buckling failure of stratified rock slopes based on the multilayer beam model     

ZHANG Yan-jun  NIAN Ting-kai  GUO Xing-sen  CHEN Guang-qi  ZHENG Lu 《山地科学学报》2019,(5)

The buckling failure of stratified rock slopes intersected by a set of steep discontinuities that are approximately parallel to the slope surface is frequently encountered while constructing railways and roadways in mountainous areas. In this study, an analytical approach based on the energy equilibrium principle is presented to solve the flexural buckling stability of stratified rock slopes within the framework of multilayer beam theory. The generalized HoekBrown failure criterion is introduced to reflect the influences of slope size(scale effects) on the buckling stability. Subsequently, numerical and physical modellings from previous literatures are employed to validate the proposed approach. Furthermore, a practical case of Bawang Mountain landslide is also used for the comparative analysis. The study shows that the present analytical approach is capable to provide a more reasonable assessment for the buckling failure of stratified rock slopes, compared with several existing analytical approaches. Finally, a detailed parametric study is implemented, and the results indicate that the effects of rock strength, rock deformation modulus, geological strength index, layer thickness and disturbance degree of rock mass on the buckling failure of stratified rock slopes are more significant than that of rock type and slope angle.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement over the Tibetan Plateau     

MA Lu  ZHAO Lin  TIAN Li-ming  YUAN Li-ming  XIAO Yao  ZHANG Le-le  ZOU De-fu  QIAO Yong-ping 《山地科学学报》2019,(7)

The availability of high-resolution satellite precipitation measurement products provides an opportunity to monitor precipitation over large and complex terrain and thus accurately evaluate the climatic, hydrological and ecological conditions in those regions. The Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) mission is an important new program designed for global satellite precipitation estimation, but little information has been reported on the applicability of the GPM’s products for the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The object of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG) Final Run product under different terrain and climate conditions over the TP by using 78 ground gauges from April 2014 to December 2017. The results showed the following:(1) the 3-year average daily precipitation estimation in the IMERG agrees well with the rain gauge observations(R~2=0.58, P0.01), and IMERG also has a considerable ability to detect precipitation, as indicated by a high probability of detection(78%-98%) and critical success index(65%-85%);(2) IMERG performed better at altitudes from 3000 m to 4000 m with a small relative bias(RB) of 6.4%. Precipitation change was not significantly affected by local relief;(3) the climate system of the TP was divided into four climate groups with a total of 12 climate types based on the K?ppen climate classification system, and IMERG performed well in all climate types with the exception of the arid-desert-cold climate(Bwk) type. Furthermore, although IMERG showed the potential to detect snowfall, it still exhibits deficiencies in identifying light and moderate snow. These results indicate that IMERG could provide more accurate precipitation data if its retrieval algorithm was improved for complex terrain and arid regions.  相似文献